Factoring In Carey Price's New Contract

Price

As I expected, Price signed a mid/long term contract with the Habs before Parise and Suter signed with their chosen team. The final term is 6.5M cap hit for 6 years for a total of 39M, which was within the rumors of a 35-40M deal for 6 years and is 200K more than my original estimate. This deal now ranks Carey Price the 3rd highest paid goaltender in the NHL in terms of cap hit, but 9th in terms of next year salary. The deal accounts for about 9.26% of next season's cap which is a bit more than what Fleury was given in terms of percentage, but much less than what Ward and Lundqvist got (I will investigate this matter further in another post). The deal  is back-end loaded which is really rare nowadays and is reminiscent of Carey Price's previous contract structure given by Pierre Gauthier.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/219975782104182785

Subban

My next prediction is the following Subban will sign a 2-year deal before Parise and Suter sign with their chosen team. If Parise and Suter land in Montreal, Don Meehan would bleed Marc Bergevin for a big contract like he did with Dean Lombardi for Drew Doughty at the beginning of the season when it was very apparent that the Kings were aiming for the cup. Alternatively, if Parise and Suter sign in Montreal before Subban is signed, Don Meehan could aim for a 1 year contract in the hope Subban gets much better statistics next season on a much better team and then bleed even more the Habs afterwards. The problem with this approach is that Subban and Pacioretty's contract would be up at the exact same time at the end of next season and both would require major salary increases. The best scenario is indeed a two-year deal for Subban before a Parise/Suter signing.

I will now attemp to guess the value of Subban's next contract by inference. The maximum cap that a team cap have at any given time before the season starts is 110% the cap or 77.22M for now. Assuming the Habs sign both Parise and Suter for 7M cap hits and does not make any trade. The roster would look like this. 

Line-up
FORWARDS
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Rene Bourque ($3.333m)
Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Brandon Prust ($2.500m)
Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m)
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.500m) / Yannick Weber ($0.850m)
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) /

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,177,976
CAP SPACE (22-man roster):- $3,977,976
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10590

This roster is 3,977,976 over the cap. The max upper limit is 77.2M, which means Subban cap hit could be about 3.04M without the need to make any trade. If PK's contract is north of that amount, the Habs would have to first sign Subban, second trade away some cap hit (meaning the trade with Nashville) and then sign Parise/Suter. From here on, I will assume that PK's next contract has a cap hit of 3M.

For my dream team to still be viable, the secret card will need to be used: the bonus amount of Galchenyuk's ELC. As I have stated in my first article (in French), only 3 forwards that have been drafted in the top3 have signed ELC with a cap hit less than 3M: Van Riemsdyk (2th overall 2007) with 1.654M, Jordan Staal (2th overall 2006) with 2.2M and Bobby Ryan (2th overall 2005) with 1.921M. Only Jordan Staal made the team the season just after being drafted.These were 3 teams that were dealing the cap and not the floor like most teams that are drafting that high.

So, my dream team's roster would look like this: 

Dream line-up
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($2.600m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($3.750m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.500m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($2.000m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,187,500
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10592

There could even be a spot for a 7th defenseman like St-Denis at 900K if Galchenyuk is willing to accept a contract to an amount comparable to Van Riemsdyk's first contract. I am probably however understating Diaz's next contract here as he could probably make 1.5M.

I now leave you with the following Carey Price citation after his signing:

"It kind of made sense to me," Price said on a conference call from Williams Lake, B.C. "It will take me to until I'm 30 years old and generally that's about the peak of goaltenders, so I'm hoping by then to have a couple of Stanley Cups and have a good re-negotiation when I'm 30."

2012-2013 Montreal Canadiens Roster

Unless Marc Bergevin signs other free agents on the market, this is probably what Montreal's roster will look like next season:

FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Colby Armstrong ($1.000m) / Lars Eller ($2.000m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($3.365m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francis Bouillon ($1.500m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.000m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,585,833
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $11,614,167
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=10157

Which is barely better than last year's roster in the second half of the season (except that Gionta should play). Montreal who thus have 7 out of 8 big sized wingers. The only problem is that 4 of them should play on the 4th line.

Unless, this is still all part of the ploy...
You see, Colombus and Nashville have difficulty bringing UFA to sign with them in the off-season. They could have Marc Bergevin to sign some free agents for them as part of their deal. So the trades would become something like this:

Sergei Kostitsyn
VS
Rene Bourque
Colby Armstrong
Francis Bouillon

and

Rick Nash
VS
Cole
Desharnais
Brandon Prust
2013 MTL 1st round pick
RW prospect (Sebastian Collberg)

The last trade almost match for the cap hit (7.8M vs 4.5M + 0.850M + 2.5M = 7.85M)

My plan could still potentially be implemented, because Parise, Suter and Andrei Kostitsyn still haven't signed elsewhere yet. Another advantage of this ploy for Montreal, would be to lock up Subban and Price to mid to long term deals (instead of one year deal) because with the current line-up the hope is slime for better performance / statistics next season.

Tim Thomas: The Best Goalie in the Last Half Decade

To evaluate the performance of goaltenders over the last 5 years, I use as a point of comparison in each year the average save percentage of goalies who were considered #1 (starter level) and the average save percentage of goalies who were considered backups (replacement level) in each year. The goalie composition of the two peer groups can change from season to season considering whether they qualify or not the group criteria (a starter needs to have played at least 49 games and a backup less than 25 games in a particular season).

Data from the above table taken from here



Relative performance of goaltenders

The following ranking is based on the cumulative even strength save percentage relative to the peer group of #1 goaltenders over the last 5 years (highlighted in blue). We use the even strength save percentage for the ranking, because team effects can have an important effect on the save percentage of goaltenders on the penalty kill. Only seasons were goaltenders played more than 45 games are considered and factored in the statistics. To be on the list, a goaltender needs to have either 1 season with 60+ games or 3 seasons with at least 45+ games played: 32 goalies qualified. (Click the image to enlarge)

 Remarks:

• The Nb of Seasons column counts the number of seasons the goaltender was considered the starting #1 goalie (criteria used: more than 45 games played).
• Highlighted in orange: the number of games played by goaltenders who have played more than 300 games over the last 5 years (only 7) and the number of seasons of goaltenders who were considered a #1 goalie 5 times in the last 5 seasons (only 8).
• Highlighted in red: Best year statistics after which a long contract (4 years or more) was signed less than an half-season after the best performing year of 45+ games in the observed period. Note: Fleury's big contract was given after a strong year of less than 45 games played
• Highlighted in purple: Best performing year statistics under coach Ken Hitchcock
• Highlighted in green: Worst performing year statistics which have a positive Rel EV Sv% (only goaltenders with at least 3 seasons of 45+ games are considered). In other words, the goaltender never underperformed the peer group of #1 goalies, a feat accomplished by only 4 goaltenders.

Interpreting the data from the table

During the 4 seasons Tim Thomas was considered a starter, he faced 6895 shots of which he stopped 6401 for an overall save percentage of about .928. During that period, his relative cumulative out-performance relative to starters was .054 or 5.4% for an average "added value" of .0135 or 1.35% (5.4% / 4) per season over the "average #1 goaltender". He thus prevented about 93 more goals or 23 more goals per season than the average starter. Compared to the "average" backup goalie, he prevented 170 more goals or 42 more goals per season (this however accounts even less for the quality of competition and is understated).

Consistency of goaltenders

Next, we look at the consistency of goaltenders over the last 5 years as measured by the concept of Target Semi-Variance (all games during the last 5 years are considered).

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/semivariance.asp#axzz1yrZfLHq9

This measure is particularly sensible to bad games and games where the goalie is pulled out (or comes in as substitute) as the save percentage of each game consists in an observation.

Remarks:

• Highlighted in orange: the save percentage of goalies who achieved a mean save percentage above .918 during the last 5 years (only 6)

Dream Team with Tight Contract Negotiations & Updated Information

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Justin Schultz ($0.925m)
Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,996,700
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $203,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9475


Darche vs Nokelainen
In my original post, I had given Darche an other contract at the same salary as last season. I also mentioned that Darche should be replaced by Geoffrion in the playoffs (ie bringing the top guys from the AHL to play on the 4th line like the Devils did this year). Let's face it, Darche is not a particularly good skater and he will not get faster with age at this point in his career. Pretty much all other forward on my line-up have above average speed by NHL standards.

This new line-up also solves a weakness of my previous one: the lack a good right-handed face-off specialist. Nokelainen is not amongst the elite at that particular task, but he is a very good option for such a low cap hit.


I had also placed White as the fourth line center, but I now realize in retrospective that White almost did not play center (if at all) in the 20 games he played this season. This also explains (somewhat) why Nokelainen and White where used multiple times as the top(first) forward pair on the penalty kill (apart from willing to tank the season). This was certainly a stress-test of their abilities on the penalty kill and has given them some valuable experience. Nokelainen and White will probably form the third forward pair on the penalty kill next year.

Also, from a Human Resource perspective, Nokelainen is essentially Chipchura's replacement. (Chipchura had lost considerably speed after his injury and was traded for a 2011 4th round pick(Magnus Nygren) to the Ducks in 2009.)

Chipchura drafted 18th in 2004 by MTL
Nokelainen drafted 16th in 2004 by NYI


Moen
Moen was signed today to a 4-year/1.85M per deal or 2.64% of next year's cap.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399541

This is a slightly better deal than the one I originally envisioned: 1.7M per/3-year
It is however in line with the lower bound comparable that I considered
Gregory Campbell 3-year/1.6M or 2.28%
and the upper bound
Maxime Talbot 5-year/1.75M per or 2.72% (in year of inception ie 2011-12)


4th line
With the recent signatures of White, Nokelainen and Moen the 4th line is now set in stone. It consists of 3 penalty killers, 1 right-handed face-off specialist and 2 guys who can drop the gloves. As a whole, the 4th line accounts for 4.43% of the salary cap for 3 out of 23 possible player slots (13.04%). Since the minimum salary did not change since the signing of the old CBA 7 years ago and the cap increased substantially, it is possible to allocate such a small proportion of the cap to these low-tier players.


Carey Price
Quick signed a 10-year/5.8M per contract extension with the LA Kings.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399458
This should serve as a comparable in the negotiation for Price's next contract.
As I will show in my next post, over the last 5 years Quick has a very comparable save percentage to Price's. In fact, he is very slightly better. Considering this alone and the fact that Quick is more proven in the playoffs (Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Price should earn less.


PK Subban
In this new line-up, I slightly reduced Subban's salary. It is however still it the same offer sheet bracket.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/could-we-get-an-offer-sheet-in-the-nhl-this-year/article4367867/
If other teams present him offer sheets and the Habs do not match it, they will have to shed a 1st and 3rd rounder in the next draft (which should be the best one in recent years). Shedding a 1st round pick is thus a relatively higher price this year. Subban could also decide on his own to not sign any offer sheet.


Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen
The Flames acquired from Washington Dennis Wideman and then signed him to a 5-year/5.25M contract.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399374
The Flames now thus have 3 top50 point producing D-men in their organization with Bouwmeester and Giordano being the other two ones.
If the Canadiens can sign Suter (and even possibly Schultz), they would be in a similar situation with Suter, Markov and Kaberle.
These two team could then collude and squeeze the market to get could return for one of their extra offensive defensemen.

There are reportedly 26 teams that would be interested to sign Justin Schultz.
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/218007150763573248
This gives you an idea of the demand for offensive defensemen in the market.
Now, here are potentially alternatives (offer):
Matt Carle, Jason Garrison, Joe Corvo, Sheldon Souray, Sami Salo, Jaroslav Spacek

There is a great disequilibrium which will increase price. Empty-handed general managers could offer great return for Bouwmeester or Kaberle.


Rationale for attracting Parise and Suter in Montreal
Why would they sign with Montreal?
After all, any playoff team with 14M$ cap space (after filling other positions) that has room for a top6 left winger and a top pair D-man playing on the left could sign them both and almost instantaneously become a Stanley Cup contender.

My answer is two-fold:

1. Montreal has all the other small pieces that make a team a contender (PK specialists, #1 goaltender, good young players, Stanley Cup winner veterans, etc.)
2. Pretty much all the players on that line-up have far above average speed just like Parise and Suter do. And if there is one thing annoying for fast players, it is playing with slower players who cannot complete the plays/opportunities you create. For example, I see Plekanec as a perfect center for Parise.

Nash instead of Iginla?
That last statement made me realize that there is one player left on my roster that does not possess distinct above average speed and that is unfortunately Iginla. Iginla will also be 35 years old next year and is the only important centerpiece that would need to be replaced in the near future that would prevent the Montreal Canadiens to be a Stanley Cup contender for the next 6 years.

The only other 7M+ power forward available on the market is non other than Rick Nash. I thus propose the following trade:

Rick Nash
VS
Erik Cole
David Desharnais
2013 MTL 1st round pick
RW Forward prospect (Sebastian Collberg?)

Trading for Nash just before July 1st 12:00 would make a huge splash and get the attention of the top profile UFAs.
The Blue Jackets would thus have 3 first round picks in the 2013 draft which is predicted to be one of the best in recent years.
The Montreal Canadiens would also still have 3 second round picks in a deep draft.

Also, signing Justin Schultz at the minimum ELC salary (0.925M$) like Adam Larsson did (he was however RFA unlike Schultz) is very unlikely for the reasons I outlined in the section Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen.
Emelin and Diaz might be willing to accept contracts at about 1M$ if they are 1-year deals which would grant them autonomy next year and greater bargaining power.

I now present you the fastest team in the NHL:

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,871,700
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $328,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9569

Revising expectations after the 2nd day of 2012 entry draft

STEP #1 - Drafting a #1 center
Done

STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
There are reports from Slovakia, that Visnovsky might bolt to the KHL next year. If it proves to be true, it would mean the Islanders shed a 2nd round pick in 2013 for absolutely nothing. Acquiring a player without knowing for sure if he will play in the NHL next year indicates to me how desperate the Islanders were to acquire an offensive defenseman and why they drafted Griffin Reinhart (which from their viewpoint could be considered a safer pick than Reilly if they were afraid of his injury).
Visnovsky however says that playing for the Islanders is his first option next year. Reading between the lines, we can infer that he has a serious second option.
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/216903553795620865

If Visnovsky goes to the KHL next year, Kaberle could prove a viable alternative for them. However, as mentioned before, they already traded away their 2nd round pick for next year. I'm sure the Canadiens could settle for less, be it a 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick. After all, it is mainly a salary dump for Montreal. Also, as previously mentioned, Edmonton is also an other viable destination.

The trade of Weber to the Islanders for voiding the Islanders' conditional 5th round pick acquired in the Wisniewski trade from Montreal (transformed in a 2013 4th round pick) still holds ground.

STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla

The acquisition of Iginla did not happen yesterday. All hope is not over however. It only implies that Montreal's 2nd round pick or any 2nd pick that could have been fetched for Kaberle is not included in this potential trade. An alternative (slithly more expensive) trade could be the following one.

Iginla

VS

Cole

Desharnais

1st round pick MTL 2013 (late)

Thus at the 2013 entry draft, Montreal would have no 1st round pick, but three 2nd round picks. 
2nd round pick CGY 2013 (early)
2nd round pick NSH 2013 (mid)
2nd round pick MTL 2013 (late)
Effectively, it is the same position as trading down from a late 1st pick to two 2nd round pick. Considering the great dept that the 2013 entry draft is presumed to have, there should be no clear cutoff point in talent at the end of the first round.

STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Again, all hope is not lost. On the contrary, you could view it as good news. Suter's rights were not traded yesterday. The previous trade that I proposed can be viewed in three separate components. The first component is Rene Bourque for Sergei Kostitsyn and the second and third components are the rights for Suter and Andrei Kostitsyn for 2nd round picks. Paying 2nd round picks for UFA rights is a very high pay to price considering you might receive nothing in return (ie you do not sign the player). This can be viewed as an upper limit that the Habs could pay for them. The lower bound is... nothing, just sign them on the open UFA market. This could potentially be more easily done for Andrei Kostitsyn since the organization has already close ties with the player. This is however less clear for Suter. My original trade was principally made in the optic of Nashville wanting to get picks back to cover their "all-in" move at the trade deadline in February.

STEP #5 - Signing Parise
No change here. Again, acquiring Iginla is pivotal to signing the free agents Parise (and Suter).

The Top Prospect Dilemma

You are the undisputed #1 prospect at the next NHL draft.
By which team would you like to be drafted by if you had the choice?

This year you would probably want to be picked by the LA Kings.
Pretty much their whole core is signed for next year and you would have a great shot to compete for a Stanley Cup with them next year thus gaining much valuable experience. $$$
If you were a forward, they could easily give you a spot as a winger on their third line (which apart from Stoll is by all means "ordinary").

Now, let's make this idealized situation a bit more idealistic.
If you had the choice amongst five teams that had badly performed last year which one would you pick. (Teams unnamed to preserve confidentiality :D)

• A team that has finished last for two consecutive years and then second last
• A bottom feeding team that is spending to the floor (structural problem against winning)
• A bottom feeding team spending near the cap unwisely
• A bottom feeding team spending "mid-cap"
• A team that has a more than legitimate chance to be competitive and make the playoffs next year and that has a bad year once in a blue moon

If you are not masochist or a have great competitive drive, you would probably choose the last team.
If Galchenyuk has the great competitive drive that he says he has, he would choose the last team.
Which brings me to the...

The Galchenyuk conspiracy
The ELC contract difference between the two prospects drafted 1st and 3rd overall last year was quite small (both are forwards like this year).
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 925,000$ + 2,875,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus
Jonathan Huberdeau 925,000$ + 2,300,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus

If you are drafted 3rd instead of 1st, you are potentially leaving 575,000$ on the table each year.
However, you also need to take into account the probability of reaching the performance thresholds in each year. On the first year, a relatively undeveloped talent playing with bad players has as a lower probability of reaching the performance thresholds especially if he does not play the full season.

Between Edmonton and Montreal, this is not a factor for Galchenyuk. There are quality wingers in both teams. This is however not the case for Colombus especially if they trade away Rick Nash like they announced they would. Add-in the facts that Galchenyuk was not very likely to be drafted above Yakupov (ex ante late August 2011) and that Edmonton a bottom feeding team likely to finish last again for the 2011-2012 season and already has a young #1 center and you get the seeds for a delicious Machiavellian ploy...

But, there is an even more important dimension to the dilemma!
The time value of money!
Or put in a more romantic way: the desire to compete in the NHL next year!

As I pointed out in my previous post, in August 2011, Galchenyuk was very scrawny looking and the odds of making the NHL next year were quite low in my opinion. Gaining muscular mass and playing a whole year in the CHL is a very difficult task. By "faking" an injury and training non-stop the whole year, Galchenyuk has greatly increased his odds to play in the NHL (with the Habs) next year.

So, effectively, Galchenyuk had to choose between the following two options at the beginning of the 2011-12 season

1. Have a potentially really good junior season; get drafted by a bottom feeding team (who could already have a young #1 center set in stone, see Edmonton), sign a contract with a 2,875,000$ performance bonus contract and play in the NHL in 2 years
2. Fake an injury and miss his 2nd junior season allowing him to train non-stop; get drafted by a competitive team that is willing to tank the season just for you(!), sign a contract with a 2,300,000$ performance bonus and play in the NHL next year.

At the same time, the Habs were conducting an "experiment" with Desharnais during the 2011-2012 season: can an undersized(undevelopped) prospect compete in the NHL with two big power forward wingers (in a sheltered role)?
The experiment was conclusive in my opinion and I can see Galchenyuk being used by his coach in a fashion similar to Desharnais next season.

Reactions to the 2012 1st round draft selections or The Galchenyuk Conspiracy

Good thing that I am not a scout or Trevor Timmins for that matter. In my previous post, I predicted that Montreal would draft Grigorenko third (Galchenyuk was my second choice though). I was however right that Montreal would select a center that is projected to become number #1.

I admit that I am not a scout and that I have not seen Grigorenko or Galchenyuk play live. (I view myself as a strategy and capologist.) My intuition was primarily based on the weird path that Grigorenko took in the last year... but now that I am thinking about it, Galchenyuk's path is even more "sketchy": he almost didn't play the whole season! And the ploy that the Montreal Canadiens would have used in this case is exactly the same they probably used to tank this season: faked (or "embellished") ACL injury.

This would also not be the first time in my opinion that the Montreal Canadiens would have used a similar ploy to get a specific player when they are selecting at the top of the draft: see Andrei Kostitsyn 10th in 2003 (fake epilepsy medical report) who had only played 16 games in his draft season.
http://watch.tsn.ca/nhl/clip690536#clip707297

Now look at this next video that was shot in August 2011. Look at how scrawny Galchenyuk looks compared to the previous one.

Now if you are the Montreal Canadiens in August 2011 and you know that Galchenyuk is your guy and that you judge that his hockey play is sufficiently developed, faking an injury has the following two advantages:
1. You can possibly secure him at a lower drafting rank (injury fears + scouts from other teams see less of him)
2. Galchenyuk can focus 100% on working out and developing himself physically to be ready to play in the NHL next year (something that is more difficult to do if you also play 80+ games at the same time)

Alex Galchenyuk profile:
Character similar to Louis Leblanc
Gym workhorse
Life dedicated to hockey
Gifted scoring touch and great backhand (natural scorer)
Great speed and explosion on the ice (great fit for the Montreal Canadiens who create breakaways etc.)
And most importantly, can execute plays at top speed


NHL combine test results
Prospect ranked #1 for peak power output distancing 2nd prospect by 0.6 Watts/kg
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=80653


Alex sure does not look as scrawny here compared to the the August 2011 interview video.

-There are a lot of fans in Montreal watching you right now, can you tell them what kind of player you are [...] ?
-Just wait and see
 http://www.rds.ca/zone-video/#cat=en_vedette&videoID=111641

Galchenyuk has a clear intention to play in the NHL next year
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=635624&navid=DL|NHL|home


Galchenyuk game highlights

***

Now that step #1 of my plan described in my previous post is completed (draft a #1 center), step #2 to 5 still need to be done. Step #2, 3 & 4 need to be done tomorrow at draft day #2. Information acquired today however slightly changed my plan.


STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
As I envisioned the Islanders acquired an offensive defenseman only Visnovsky instead of Kaberle.
The Islanders could however still be interested to acquire Yannick Weber in exchange of voiding the conditional 5th round pick that they acquired from Montreal in the Wisniewski trade (that pick would translated in a 2013 4th round pick since MTL dealt it away to Calgary in the Cammaleri trade).

Edmonton however did not acquire a puck moving defense today and could be interested to acquire one, namely Kaberle. Kaberle - Whitney would make a great pair on the power play. And Kaberle could feed their speedy young forwards at 5v5. Kaberle vs Edmonton's 2nd round pick in 2012 is still a possibility.


STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla
Calgary trading down in the first round to acquire a second round pick from Buffalo removes one of the motivations that I had listed to deal Iginla to Montreal. Calgary could still however be interested to acquire a second 2nd round pick in 2012.

Also, a dubious and unconfirmed rumor from David Staples that suggest that the Flames are offering a 6-year 6 million per season deal to Jokinen which would void my reasoning. (There is no place for Desharnais and Jokinen on their team.)
https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/216337768375263232

This step is not contingent on step #2, but if step #2 is not done this would imply that Montreal would have no 2nd round pick in 2012.


STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Everything is still possible at this point. However, if Montreal chooses to draft at the 51th position (Nashville's 2nd round pick) this would void my theory.


STEP #5 - Signing Parise
The Penguins made a splash trade Friday be dealing away Jordan Staal to the Canes. They also traded Michalek to Phoenix. They thus freed 5,933M$ of cap space.
Staal (4M$) + Michalek (4M$) - Sutter (2,067M$)

This is a clear indication to me that Pittsburgh is looking to find at least one quality winger for Crosby. Signing or acquiring a quality winger would greatly help the negotiations to retain Crosby in Pittsburgh. Parise is probably their #1 target. If Montreal could snatch him from them, they would find themselves in a weakened position (no Staal and no quality winger). Pittsburgh trading for Iginla would imply for them also giving other assets.


My dream team could still prove a reality (added-in Galchenyuk instead of Grigorenko). Tomorrow will indicate if that dream can still be a possibility.

FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Mathieu Darche ($0.700m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.750m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($1.100m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.100m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.300m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,287,500
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=7584