Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Justin Schultz ($0.925m)
Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
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SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,996,700
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $203,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9475
Darche vs Nokelainen
In my original post, I had given Darche an other contract at the same salary as last season. I also mentioned that Darche should be replaced by Geoffrion in the playoffs (ie bringing the top guys from the AHL to play on the 4th line like the Devils did this year). Let's face it, Darche is not a particularly good skater and he will not get faster with age at this point in his career. Pretty much all other forward on my line-up have above average speed by NHL standards.
This new line-up also solves a weakness of my previous one: the lack a good right-handed face-off specialist. Nokelainen is not amongst the elite at that particular task, but he is a very good option for such a low cap hit.
I had also placed White as the fourth line center, but I now realize in retrospective that White almost did not play center (if at all) in the 20 games he played this season. This also explains (somewhat) why Nokelainen and White where used multiple times as the top(first) forward pair on the penalty kill (apart from willing to tank the season). This was certainly a stress-test of their abilities on the penalty kill and has given them some valuable experience. Nokelainen and White will probably form the third forward pair on the penalty kill next year.
Also, from a Human Resource perspective, Nokelainen is essentially Chipchura's replacement. (Chipchura had lost considerably speed after his injury and was traded for a 2011 4th round pick(Magnus Nygren) to the Ducks in 2009.)
Chipchura drafted 18th in 2004 by MTL
Nokelainen drafted 16th in 2004 by NYI
Moen
Moen was signed today to a 4-year/1.85M per deal or 2.64% of next year's cap.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399541
This is a slightly better deal than the one I originally envisioned: 1.7M per/3-year
It is however in line with the lower bound comparable that I considered
Gregory Campbell 3-year/1.6M or 2.28%
and the upper bound
Maxime Talbot 5-year/1.75M per or 2.72% (in year of inception ie 2011-12)
4th line
With the recent signatures of White, Nokelainen and Moen the 4th line is now set in stone. It consists of 3 penalty killers, 1 right-handed face-off specialist and 2 guys who can drop the gloves. As a whole, the 4th line accounts for 4.43% of the salary cap for 3 out of 23 possible player slots (13.04%). Since the minimum salary did not change since the signing of the old CBA 7 years ago and the cap increased substantially, it is possible to allocate such a small proportion of the cap to these low-tier players.
Carey Price
Quick signed a 10-year/5.8M per contract extension with the LA Kings.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399458
This should serve as a comparable in the negotiation for Price's next contract.
As I will show in my next post, over the last 5 years Quick has a very comparable save percentage to Price's. In fact, he is very slightly better. Considering this alone and the fact that Quick is more proven in the playoffs (Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Price should earn less.
PK Subban
In this new line-up, I slightly reduced Subban's salary. It is however still it the same offer sheet bracket.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/could-we-get-an-offer-sheet-in-the-nhl-this-year/article4367867/
If other teams present him offer sheets and the Habs do not match it, they will have to shed a 1st and 3rd rounder in the next draft (which should be the best one in recent years). Shedding a 1st round pick is thus a relatively higher price this year. Subban could also decide on his own to not sign any offer sheet.
Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen
The Flames acquired from Washington Dennis Wideman and then signed him to a 5-year/5.25M contract.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399374
The Flames now thus have 3 top50 point producing D-men in their organization with Bouwmeester and Giordano being the other two ones.
If the Canadiens can sign Suter (and even possibly Schultz), they would be in a similar situation with Suter, Markov and Kaberle.
These two team could then collude and squeeze the market to get could return for one of their extra offensive defensemen.
There are reportedly 26 teams that would be interested to sign Justin Schultz.
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/218007150763573248
This gives you an idea of the demand for offensive defensemen in the market.
Now, here are potentially alternatives (offer):
Matt Carle, Jason Garrison, Joe Corvo, Sheldon Souray, Sami Salo, Jaroslav Spacek
There is a great disequilibrium which will increase price. Empty-handed general managers could offer great return for Bouwmeester or Kaberle.
Rationale for attracting Parise and Suter in Montreal
Why would they sign with Montreal?
After all, any playoff team with 14M$ cap space (after filling other positions) that has room for a top6 left winger and a top pair D-man playing on the left could sign them both and almost instantaneously become a Stanley Cup contender.
My answer is two-fold:
- Montreal has all the other small pieces that make a team a contender (PK specialists, #1 goaltender, good young players, Stanley Cup winner veterans, etc.)
- Pretty much all the players on that line-up have far above average speed just like Parise and Suter do. And if there is one thing annoying for fast players, it is playing with slower players who cannot complete the plays/opportunities you create. For example, I see Plekanec as a perfect center for Parise.
Nash instead of Iginla?
That last statement made me realize that there is one player left on my roster that does not possess distinct above average speed and that is unfortunately Iginla. Iginla will also be 35 years old next year and is the only important centerpiece that would need to be replaced in the near future that would prevent the Montreal Canadiens to be a Stanley Cup contender for the next 6 years.
The only other 7M+ power forward available on the market is non other than Rick Nash. I thus propose the following trade:
Rick Nash
VS
Erik Cole
David Desharnais
2013 MTL 1st round pick
RW Forward prospect (Sebastian Collberg?)
Trading for Nash just before July 1st 12:00 would make a huge splash and get the attention of the top profile UFAs.
The Blue Jackets would thus have 3 first round picks in the 2013 draft which is predicted to be one of the best in recent years.
The Montreal Canadiens would also still have 3 second round picks in a deep draft.
Also, signing Justin Schultz at the minimum ELC salary (0.925M$) like Adam Larsson did (he was however RFA unlike Schultz) is very unlikely for the reasons I outlined in the section Squeezing the market for offensive defensemen.
Emelin and Diaz might be willing to accept contracts at about 1M$ if they are 1-year deals which would grant them autonomy next year and greater bargaining power.
I now present you the fastest team in the NHL:
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Ryan White ($0.688m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.375m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($0.984m) / Raphael Diaz ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($5.750m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,871,700
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $328,300
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=9569
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