Monday, June 25, 2012

Revising expectations after the 2nd day of 2012 entry draft

STEP #1 - Drafting a #1 center
Done

STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
There are reports from Slovakia, that Visnovsky might bolt to the KHL next year. If it proves to be true, it would mean the Islanders shed a 2nd round pick in 2013 for absolutely nothing. Acquiring a player without knowing for sure if he will play in the NHL next year indicates to me how desperate the Islanders were to acquire an offensive defenseman and why they drafted Griffin Reinhart (which from their viewpoint could be considered a safer pick than Reilly if they were afraid of his injury).
Visnovsky however says that playing for the Islanders is his first option next year. Reading between the lines, we can infer that he has a serious second option.
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/216903553795620865

If Visnovsky goes to the KHL next year, Kaberle could prove a viable alternative for them. However, as mentioned before, they already traded away their 2nd round pick for next year. I'm sure the Canadiens could settle for less, be it a 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick. After all, it is mainly a salary dump for Montreal. Also, as previously mentioned, Edmonton is also an other viable destination.

The trade of Weber to the Islanders for voiding the Islanders' conditional 5th round pick acquired in the Wisniewski trade from Montreal (transformed in a 2013 4th round pick) still holds ground.

STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla
The acquisition of Iginla did not happen yesterday. All hope is not over however. It only implies that Montreal's 2nd round pick or any 2nd pick that could have been fetched for Kaberle is not included in this potential trade. An alternative (slithly more expensive) trade could be the following one.

Iginla
VS
Cole
Desharnais
1st round pick MTL 2013 (late)

Thus at the 2013 entry draft, Montreal would have no 1st round pick, but three 2nd round picks. 
2nd round pick CGY 2013 (early)
2nd round pick NSH 2013 (mid)
2nd round pick MTL 2013 (late)
Effectively, it is the same position as trading down from a late 1st pick to two 2nd round pick. Considering the great dept that the 2013 entry draft is presumed to have, there should be no clear cutoff point in talent at the end of the first round.

STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Again, all hope is not lost. On the contrary, you could view it as good news. Suter's rights were not traded yesterday. The previous trade that I proposed can be viewed in three separate components. The first component is Rene Bourque for Sergei Kostitsyn and the second and third components are the rights for Suter and Andrei Kostitsyn for 2nd round picks. Paying 2nd round picks for UFA rights is a very high pay to price considering you might receive nothing in return (ie you do not sign the player). This can be viewed as an upper limit that the Habs could pay for them. The lower bound is... nothing, just sign them on the open UFA market. This could potentially be more easily done for Andrei Kostitsyn since the organization has already close ties with the player. This is however less clear for Suter. My original trade was principally made in the optic of Nashville wanting to get picks back to cover their "all-in" move at the trade deadline in February.

STEP #5 - Signing Parise
No change here. Again, acquiring Iginla is pivotal to signing the free agents Parise (and Suter).

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