By which team would you like to be drafted by if you had the choice?
This year you would probably want to be picked by the LA Kings.
Pretty much their whole core is signed for next year and you would have a great shot to compete for a Stanley Cup with them next year thus gaining much valuable experience. $$$
If you were a forward, they could easily give you a spot as a winger on their third line (which apart from Stoll is by all means "ordinary").
Now, let's make this idealized situation a bit more idealistic.
If you had the choice amongst five teams that had badly performed last year which one would you pick. (Teams unnamed to preserve confidentiality :D)
- A team that has finished last for two consecutive years and then second last
- A bottom feeding team that is spending to the floor (structural problem against winning)
- A bottom feeding team spending near the cap unwisely
- A bottom feeding team spending "mid-cap"
- A team that has a more than legitimate chance to be competitive and make the playoffs next year and that has a bad year once in a blue moon
If Galchenyuk has the great competitive drive that he says he has, he would choose the last team.
Which brings me to the...
The Galchenyuk conspiracy
The ELC contract difference between the two prospects drafted 1st and 3rd overall last year was quite small (both are forwards like this year).
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 925,000$ + 2,875,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus
Jonathan Huberdeau 925,000$ + 2,300,000$ Perf bonus + 92,500$ Signing bonus
If you are drafted 3rd instead of 1st, you are potentially leaving 575,000$ on the table each year.
However, you also need to take into account the probability of reaching the performance thresholds in each year. On the first year, a relatively undeveloped talent playing with bad players has as a lower probability of reaching the performance thresholds especially if he does not play the full season.
Between Edmonton and Montreal, this is not a factor for Galchenyuk. There are quality wingers in both teams. This is however not the case for Colombus especially if they trade away Rick Nash like they announced they would. Add-in the facts that Galchenyuk was not very likely to be drafted above Yakupov (ex ante late August 2011) and that Edmonton a bottom feeding team likely to finish last again for the 2011-2012 season and already has a young #1 center and you get the seeds for a delicious Machiavellian ploy...
But, there is an even more important dimension to the dilemma!
The time value of money!
Or put in a more romantic way: the desire to compete in the NHL next year!
As I pointed out in my previous post, in August 2011, Galchenyuk was very scrawny looking and the odds of making the NHL next year were quite low in my opinion. Gaining muscular mass and playing a whole year in the CHL is a very difficult task. By "faking" an injury and training non-stop the whole year, Galchenyuk has greatly increased his odds to play in the NHL (with the Habs) next year.
So, effectively, Galchenyuk had to choose between the following two options at the beginning of the 2011-12 season
- Have a potentially really good junior season; get drafted by a bottom feeding team (who could already have a young #1 center set in stone, see Edmonton), sign a contract with a 2,875,000$ performance bonus contract and play in the NHL in 2 years
- Fake an injury and miss his 2nd junior season allowing him to train non-stop; get drafted by a competitive team that is willing to tank the season just for you(!), sign a contract with a 2,300,000$ performance bonus and play in the NHL next year.
At the same time, the Habs were conducting an "experiment" with Desharnais during the 2011-2012 season: can an undersized(undevelopped) prospect compete in the NHL with two big power forward wingers (in a sheltered role)?
The experiment was conclusive in my opinion and I can see Galchenyuk being used by his coach in a fashion similar to Desharnais next season.
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