What is a power forward?
"In ice hockey, power forward (PF) is a loosely applied characterization of a forward who is big and strong, equally capable of playing physically or scoring goals and would most likely have high totals in both points and penalties. It is usually used in reference to a forward who is physically large, with the toughness to dig the puck out of the corners, possesses offensive instincts, has mobility, puck-handling skills, may be difficult to knock off the puck and willingly engage in fights when he feels it's required. Possessing both physical size and offensive ability, power forwards are also often referred to as the 'complete' hockey player." from Wikipedia.
Attempting to translate that definition into readily available stats, I made the following not too restrictive arbitrary definition: a player with at least 100 hits in a season and 20 goals scored at even strength. I use goals at even strength, because goals scored at 5v5 are usually more often the result of toughness, winning individual battles and gaining position on an opponent (ex see the video above) than on the power play which is more about pure offensive skills (passing, shooting, etc.)
2007-2008 Power Forwards
2008-2009 Power Forwards
2009-2010 Power Forwards
2010-2011 Power Forwards
2011-2012 Power Forwards
Power Forward Summary
Remarks
- Although I did not put any restriction on player weight/height in my definition of a power forward, no power forward in my study is under 6 feet and only 3 are slightly below 200 pounds (all in the 2011-2012 season)
- To be considered a power forward for multiple seasons is a very rare feat: only Alex Ovechkin(5), Bobby Ryan(3) and Scott Hartell(3) made it more than twice.
- The 2011-2012 saw a lot of young and upcoming players making the list: Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal
- The number of identified power forwards increases each season, this trend can be decomposed into an increase of even strength 20 goal scorers and an increase of 100+ hitters over the 5 season span.
- Over the seasons, a higher proportion of 20+ even strength goal scorers have also given 100+ hits and a higher of proportion of 100+ hitters have also scored 20+ even strength goals. This could be interpreted that either some high skilled players are getting more physical or that physical players are getting more efficient at scoring goals (or are getting more ice time).
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Next, I look at possible explanations for the increase in 20+ even strength scorers and 100+ hitters
Goal types as a percentage of total goals scored
Even strength and power play goals as a percentage of total goals scored
Remarks
- After the lockout, the proportion of goals scored on the power play soared to 33% and has constantly decreased since to fall to 21% last season.
- During the same time period, the proportion of goals scored at even strength took the inverse direction growing from 59% to 72%.
- After the lockout, the total amount of goals scored jumped to above 7400 from a level of around 6300. The increase in total goals scored was mainly attributable to an increase of goals scored on the power play (2500 vs 1700).
- In the last season, total goals scored fell to almost pre-lockout levels, but even strength goals scored is markedly higher than pre-lockout levels.
- Over the last 3 seasons, even strength goal scoring was near constant while power play goal scoring continued to decline.
- After the lockout, the proportion of empty net goals saw a slight and almost linear increase which could be interpreted in an increase in the number of tight one-goal games.
Power play opportunities
Power play opportunities
- The season after the lockout saw an increase of about 4000 power play opportunities from the previous season.
- Since then, power play opportunities have decreased from season to season
- Since 2005-2006, there has been a decrease of about 6200 power play opportunities.
- Since 2007-2008, there has been a decrease of about 2400 power play opportunities.
- The downward trend is slowing down.
Power play efficiency
Power play efficiency
Remarks
- Over the last 12 seasons, power play efficiency and power play play shot efficiency have been relatively stable.
- Since 2008-2009, power play efficiency has been on a slight downward trend.
- Since 2005-2006, power play shot efficiency has been on a slight downward trend which could potentially be explained by an increase in blocked shots.
Hits
Hits
Remarks
- Unlike goals, hits are harder to measure and are more subjective.
- The big change in hits from 2001-2002 to 2002-2003 is most likely the result of a change in the counting methodology than the league becoming inexplicably "softer" the next year.
- Assuming the counting methodology is the same since the lockout, the league got more and more physical since 2005.
- In the last 3 seasons, the number of hits has been fairly constant.
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Coming back to the power forward issue...
As just demonstrated, even strength goals and hits have been fairly constant over the last 3 seasons. These seasons are thus the most comparable. From 2009-2010 to 2011-12, the number of power forwards jumped from 8 to 13 which leads me to believe that the top-end talent is getting more physical or that some physical players are more thriving under the "modern" NHL. I made the following somewhat arbitrary classification of power forwards with examples from the 2011-2012 season
- Alex Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan, Scott Hartnell
- Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash
- Erik Cole, Chris Kunitz
- Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal
- Pascal Dupuis, David Clarkson
I attribute the increase in power forwards this season to categories 4 & 5 which were empty the season before.
Category 4: some of the new top-end talent entering the league is playing a physical game
Category 5: physical third liners that are getting more ice-time due to the reduction of power play opportunities are scoring more goals at even strength
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