1. Trading away a small offensively-minded defensively-challenged top6 forward (Cammalleri) for a physical top9 forward better in his own zone, but less talented offensively in Rene Bourque (who effectively took AK46's spot on the 3rd line) The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Calgary in the trade.
2. Trading away AK46 who was relayed to a third line role with Eller (but playing against high quality of competition) which he was not especially suited for (mainly because of his frequent turnovers). The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Nashville in the trade.
The plan
To come full circle, a possible move would be to trade away picks for an offensive top6 forward (effectively filling the void left by Cammalleri). One possible way to accomplish this is to present an offer sheet to a RFA. One current RFA that fits the bill is Evander Kane.
According to capgeek, Winnipeg has currently about 50.9M tied up in 20 players. Winnipeg has thus 3.3M left to spend before reaching the salary floor. Winnipeg's next moves probably include giving a 4-5M contract to Evander Kane and maybe signing a 7th depth defenseman. There is no way to know for sure what the Jets' internal salary spending limit is, but my uneducated guess is that is it below 60M. (Note: although Winnipeg currently has 50.9M tied up in cap hit, it will actually only pay about 50.1M in salary next season for the 20 NHL players currently under contract).
I thus propose the following offer sheet contract which has a cap hit of 6M
10.00M (8M+ signing bonus)
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
Which is in agreement with the CBA rules
Note 1: it is possible to create a contract even more front-loaded than this. The first year salary should be as high as the Jets' maximum salary budget is believed to be minus 50.1M
Note 2: the term of the proposed offer sheet contract is only 5 years, because the CBA has made it impossible to exploit the loophole of tail years with small salaries for offer sheet contracts
Note 2: the term of the proposed offer sheet contract is only 5 years, because the CBA has made it impossible to exploit the loophole of tail years with small salaries for offer sheet contracts
10.4 Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club's Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five) (See The 2005 NHL CBA p.38)
Note 3 (update): the Flyers used the same basic strategy I outlined here with their offer sheet to Shea Weber
The idea behind such a contract is to provoke a liquidity shortage for the cash strapped Jets organization. Lacking the short term cash to finance such a contract (created in large part by the signing bonus payable immediately), Winnipeg would not be a position to match the offer sheet and would let Evander Kane walk (to their dismay).
The idea behind such a contract is to provoke a liquidity shortage for the cash strapped Jets organization. Lacking the short term cash to finance such a contract (created in large part by the signing bonus payable immediately), Winnipeg would not be a position to match the offer sheet and would let Evander Kane walk (to their dismay).
Since my offer sheet has a cap hit of 6M (which is in-between $5,046,585 to $6,728,781), the compensation the Habs would have to give the Jets is their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in the next 2013 draft. The 1st rounder (in what is to be believed an excellent draft) has in itself great value (especially if the Jets believe the Habs are headed for another abysmal season). This alone could make them think twice about matching the offer.
Montreal would thus have in its top6, 3 of last year's 5 top producing power forwards in the league.
Digression: I define a power forward as a winger with 100+ hits and 20+ 5v5 goals. Only 13 forwards in the league met these criteria last season.
According to these criteria the top 5 power forwards in the league last year were (ranked by 5v5 goals)
- Max Pacioretty
- Bobby Ryan
- Alex Ovechkin
- Erik Cole
- Evander Kane
Caveats
- Giving $10M right away to an unproven 20/21 year old (who apparently likes night life) could hinder his development if his personality is predisposed to the "big-head syndrome"
- Possible hatred from Winnipeg for taking away their best young offensive prospect
- Prior to presenting an offer sheet to Evander Kane, the Habs should sign Subban in the fear of an offer sheet retaliation from Winnipeg targeting Subban.
- Although Evander Kane's point production has constantly increased over the last 3 years, he has faced easier and easier competition each year. While he faced the highest opposition in his junior year, he faced 2nd grade opposition in his second year and 3rd grade opposition last season. This should however not be too much of a concern if you plan to use him against relatively easy opposition from the get-go on your match-up planning (ie you know what he can or cannot bring). (Note: a strategic employment of Kane would have called to make him play the toughest minutes in his contract year to dampen his statistics and get better leverage in the contract negotiations.)
Bottom line
Kane > Cammalleri (more physical, goal production ceiling potentially higher)
Bourque > Kostitsyn (in that 3rd line role, better defensively)
(2nd round pick) x2 < 1st round pick + 2nd round pick + 3rd round pick
Final line-up
FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Evander Kane ($5.000m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Ryan White ($0.688m)
DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($4.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francis Bouillon ($1.500m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,652,976;
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $547,024
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=11829
Pac - Pleky - Cole
A line similar in composition to Bertuzzi - Datsyuk - Franzen (two big power forwards + two-way center)
If a line of Darche - Plek - Moen could shutdown Malkin's line in the regular season, I imagine this would do the trick (and at the same time be more of an offensive threat).
That exact line was very productive against Vancouver (2nd encounter) when Desharnais was out.
Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition
Kane - Gomer - Gio
A line similar in composition to Pacio - Gomez - Gionta that was very productive before Pacioretty's injury.
Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition (Kane and Gomez are not particularly great in their own end)
Bourque - Eller - Army
Rene Bourque has also been used against the highest quality of competition in Calgary for the 3 and a half years he spent there. However, he was not particularly successful playing with Plekanec against the highest competition in the second half of the season (but the whole team was in disarray).
Colby Armstrong was used against the highest quality of competition in Atlanta before signing in Toronto.
Eller was successfully used some nights against high quality of competition with teammates Moen and Kostitsyn.
Colby, Eller and Bourque are all similar in various ways: all have strong shooting percentages (above 10%), all score their goals near the net, all have good skates and all play a physical game.
Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition
Prust - Noke/White - Moen
Checking line that can drop the gloves.
Nokelainen: face-off specialist
Penalty Kill
The acquisition of Prust permits the use of two very good forward pairs on the PK
Plekanec - Moen
Eller - Prust
A Noke/White - Bourque pair is not too bad either.
Gorges - Subban
Shutdown pair
Both were mentored by Hal Gill and were used with him in a similar role in the playoffs.
Really good pair with few scoring chances against in the second half of last season
Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition
Markov - Emelin
A pair reminiscent of Markov - Komisarek
When at 100%, Markov should make his blue-line partner look better.
Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition
Kaberle - Bouillon
Kaberle didn't look too good in his zone last season, but this can be attributed to the fact that he was often paired with a rookie in Emelin or other offensive defensemen that are even worst in their own zone (Campoli, Weber)
Bouillon is a good defensive defenseman that had a strong showing in this year's playoffs. He will be a good complement to Kaberle.
Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition
Trade Baits for extra picks
David Desharnais (potentially a 2nd round pick)
Raphael Diaz (potentially a 3rd round pick)
Yannick Weber (potentially a 4th round pick)
If Montreal could trade all 3 players for the picks aforementioned, it would leave Montreal with the following position at the next draft
1st round: none
2nd round: 3x
3rd round: 1x
4rd round: 1x
5th round: 1x
6th round: 1x
7th round: 1x
Notes:
Montreal could use two 2nd round picks to trade up for one 1st round pick.
The loss of a 1st round pick could be dampened by a strong playoff run (Stanley cup?)
Exploring alternatives
Shane Doan
Signing him as a UFA has no explicit cost to Montreal, except his cap hit (opportunity cost)
The implicit cost however is that he is probably looking for a long term contract that will bring him to at least 40 (expected "production" value lower than cap hit at end of contract, contradictory to the speed identity of the Habs)
Will be 36 years old next year (ie 35+ contract)
Natural right-winger (which Montreal already has two of in its top6 (Cole, Gionta), implying someone would have to play off-wing)
Has averaged a 20 goal production in the last 3 years (not great)
About 30% of his point are produced on the power play
A natural leader that has known good performance in the playoffs during past seasons
11 teams interested in him if he decides to not resign with the Coyotes (potential bidding war)
Bobby Ryan
Explicit cost: really high (Anaheim will ask a lot for him, potential bidding war)
Right-handed, but played most of his NHL career on the left wing.
Played against 2nd grade opposition last season
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