Rick Nash in Montreal (Updated)

Now that Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are out of the market (after signing ridiculously long contracts), the biggest fish left in the pound is now Rich Nash.

Transaction proposal

Rick Nash

VS

Erik Cole

David Desharnais

Sebastian Collberg

2013 MTL 1st round pick

Reviewing recent past moves from Columbus

Defense

They acquired 2 defensemen:

On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.

On June 22, 2012, Columbus selects Ryan Murray 2nd overall in the 2012 entry draft.

Goaltending

They acquired one backup goalie:

On June 22, 2012 before the 2012 entry draft, Scott Howson acquires Sergei Bobrovsky in exchange of their 45th (2nd round pick acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes) and 117th (4th round pick acquired from the Vancouver Canucks) selections in the 2012 draft and a 4th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (also acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes).

Forwards

They acquired one centerman and traded away three others.

On November 8, 2011, the Blue Jackets trade for Mark Letestu in exchange of their own 4th round pick in the 2012 entry draft.

On February 22, 2012, Scott Howson trades Antoine Vermette to the Phoenix Coyotes for a 2nd round pick in the 2012 entry draft (Ottawa's), a conditional 5th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (Phoenix's) that transformed into a 2013 4th round pick when the Coyotes made it to the second round of the playoffs and minor league goaltender Curtis McElhinney.

On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.

On February 27, 2012, Scott Howson trades Sami Pahlsson to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange of minor league defenseman Taylor Ellington and two 4th round picks in 2012 (the Canucks' own and the New York Islanders' which was acquired in exchange of Christian Ehrhoff's rights).

After all these trades and Rick Nash taken out, this is what the Blue Jackets could look like next season:

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets roster at this time with Rick Nash taken out
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / ????????????????? / ???????????????
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) /  Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)
Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)
John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

If Nash ends up not being traded, Johansen would take a spot at center and Rick Nash and Cam Atkinson would fill the right wing slots on the top6. As both Brassard and Johansen have been used on the wing this season, the Blue Jackets are most likely looking for 2 top6 centers, 2 top6 right wingers or, even better, one first line center and one fist line right winger to complete their roster in an hypothetical trade involving Rick Nash. There are however by definition only 90 forwards in the league that fit that definition. The most competitive teams have only 4 of these forwards. (Boston is the only team to have 5 forwards that rank in the top90.) Parting with two of them to get one (Nash) is a pensez-y bien.

Other teams in the race for Nash

Three teams have reportedly been very active to acquire Rick Nash: the LA Kings, the San Jose Sharks and the New York Rangers. What could be Colombus' demands for each of these teams? Here are the forwards that fit the bill (top90 forwards / center or right winger / one young veteran & one seasoned veteran)

Sharks: Logan Couture & Joe Pavelski

Rangers: Derek Stepan & Ryan Callahan

Kings: Dustin Brown & Justin Williams

Any deal including these players would automatically beat my original offer, but these players are also very unlikely to be traded by their respective teams.

Dissecting the hypothetical Columbus-Montreal trade

Rick Nash

Rick Nash is a special player: he was drafted first overall in 2002 and is part of a special club of players who have scored 30 goals or more for at least 6 seasons since the lockout. Only 5 players are part of that club and the other members played with far better teams and teammates than Nash. His best season was in 2008-2009 when he scored 40 goals and 79 points. This was accomplished without a true #1 center to feed him passes. Rick Nash is also a very hard player to contain on the ice as judged by number of penalties drawn against him per 60 minutes of ice time at even strength last season. This translated in about 0.45 power play opportunities per game for his team (4th highest in the league). He also had the 4th best penalty differential adjusted for ice-time in the league. He is thus a very handy player to have on your team if it possesses a strong power play. Also, as illustrated in the video above, Rick Nash is very good for capitalizing on breakaway opportunities. Plekanec is a center that tends to create a lot of these and would be a very good fit for Nash (he is also a very good play maker).

All is however not merry. Nash just had his least productive season in the last 5 years with 30 goals and 59 points despite playing all 82 games (ranking behind Desharnais and Cole). His goal and point totals have been on a constant decline over the last 4 seasons. Furthermore, historical analysis of elite goal-scoring wingers suggest that their peak is attained between the ages of 23 and 25 and that their production begins to decline by the time they are 26. They are however exceptions such as Iginla, but Nash's decline in production over the last seasons could lead one to believe that he is part of the norm rather than an exception. If Nash's production continues to decline, his contract (at $7.8M caphit) could become an anchor for his team. (Note: The fact that Scott Howson said in his press conference after the trade deadline that it was Nash that asked for a trade could have for purpose to go against the image of a team attempting to get rid of a potentially bad contract.) Nash also has the bad reputation of a player deficient in his own zone due to his bad +/- stats. He however faced the highest quality of competition for forwards on his team each night and was most certainly not centered by a great two-way player.

Erik Cole

At age 33, Erik Cole has just known his career year with 35 goals and 61 points despite already playing 10 years in the NHL. The season before, he played with world-class center Eric Staal in Carolina against the highest quality of competition. This season is played with newcomer David Desharnais as center and got better offensive production facing mid grade quality of competition. Should we attribute Cole's higher offensive output to his new centerman or the lowest quality of competition he was facing? That question is up to debate. An other important factor is that Cole still has three years left on his contract and will be 36 years old by the time it ends. The game of a power forward is more hard on the body that the game of power play specialist such as Teemu Selanne or Mark Recchi. However, Doan and Iginla and two relatively old power forwards that are still kicking it in the league (although they have shown some signs of slowdown). Will Cole be able to maintain his current offensive production until the end of his contract?

David Desharnais

Despite his small stature, David Desharnais was the 20th point producing center in the league (effectively filling the role of a tier2 #1 center). He has shown that he can produce a lot of points in the NHL if he is given two big quality wingers. The Blue Jackets could recreate that winning situation for him by letting him play with Cole and Umberger in Columbus. Umberger is not as talented as Pacioretty and never has scored  30 goals in the NHL, but he fits the power forward mold just like Pacioretty does (big and fast on his skates).

Sebastian Collberg

As the Jackets get noticeably older with the replacement of Nash by Cole, it is in their right to ask for the best right-wing prospect the Habs have. Their eyes will most likely be laid on Sebastian Collberg, drafted 33th overall in the last entry draft. Trevor Timmins in a video interview qualified him as worthy of the 1st round.

2013 MTL 1st round pick

At first glance, Montreal's 1st rounder has more value that any other 1st rounder that could be offered by the Kings, Sharks or Rangers. These three teams all made the playoffs this year and if they did not make it again next season it would be a big upset. Montreal on the other hand finished last in the eastern conference and if they went far into the playoffs next year it would be a big surprise. Furthermore, without 2 of their top3 best point producers last season gone, a new management, a change of philosophy and much of the same players as last year, results could be expected to take time before they improve. The arrival of Nash would certainly help the Habs, but even with him in their line-up Columbus did finish dead last in the league last season. A first rounder would also be a must for Columbus in a transaction involving Nash. With the 1st round pick acquired in the transaction that sent Jeff Carter to the Kings, the Blue Jackets would effectively have 3 picks in the first round of the promising 2013 entry draft. 

Note: Erik Cole's NTC and Rick Nash's NMC are both possible barriers to this hypothetical trade.


Speculating on what could have went down

A possible explanation as to why Montreal was never in the rumors concerning Rick Nash is that Pierre Gauthier made the initial offer to the Blue Jackets that set the benchmark for the price of Nash which was essentially the one I just proposed, but probably a less generous one (for example two second round picks instead of a first round pick and Sebastian Collerberg as he was not drafted yet at that time). That proposal set the benchmark for the price of Nash and Howson then probed the other general managers on Nash's secret trade list in an attempt to get a better deal, but without success as no trade happened before the trade deadline. It was also in the interest of Howson to wait until summer so teams with cap restraints could make some place for Nash on their roster. Pierre Gauthier had told in some of his interviews that he had a plan in mind to put the franchise right back on track and that it is now possible to do so quickly in the new NHL. He also regarded his recently acquired 2nd round picks as tools that could be used in one way or another. Trading for Nash could have been that plan: the plan of a desperate GM trying to save his team's season and his job. However, at that time Montreal was not as low as it finished in the standings and Nash could have given a small boost to the team thus reducing the value of the picks it could have offered. The fact that Nash asked for a trade and that his NMC permitted him to choose a selected list of teams he was willing to get traded to could have sparked the hypothesis of a conspiracy in Howson's mind, because Nash and a rival GM could have conspired against him. The recent firing of Gauthier and the total change of management however eliminates the possibly that such a plan was engineered by the Habs management. 

Fueling the rumor mill

Erik Cole's contract structure makes him particularly valuable for a team on a tight budget: 8 millions of the original 18 million contract are already paid for by the Montreal Canadiens for only 1 season of play out of 4. The Columbus Blue Jackets would only have to pay the remaining 10 millions over the course of the next three years (an average spending of $3.33M) whereas the cap hit of the contract stays at $4.5M, an economy of more than $1M per year on average and an actual economy of $2.5M during the first year. Also, trading away Mike Cammalleri (a top6 forward) for Rene Bourque (a top9 forward) effectively left a top6 forward position empty on the Habs' roster which could be filled by Rick Nash. Furthermore, Erik Cole and David Desharnais were put this season in a very favorable light: their line stayed intact almost the whole season and they were put against 3rd grade opposition when playing at home.

Would Montreal be giving too much?

As a whole what Montreal would be offering for Nash may seem a lot, but by looking at each piece individually we see that the organization took great precaution to dampen the lost of each. Erik Cole was an UFA last summer and any team could potentially have signed him without giving anything in return. His contract cap space was the only opportunity cost of signing him. Rick Nash would effectively take his spot on the right wing on the first line. Montreal has also great depth at center: Plekanec, Gomez, Eller, Nokelainen, White, Leblanc and Desharnais could all fill that role next season. Giving away the only one that was never drafted or traded for has also very little opportunity considering another center could take his spot. Desharnais also does not fit the mold of the ideal #1 center one would want to have on the ice during a Stanley Cup final game in over time. His size and his play in his own zone are his main drawbacks. The loss of Sebastian Collberg would be dampened by the fact that the Habs drafted twice in the second round of the 2012 entry draft. The loss of the 1st round pick in 2013 would be amortized by the fact that Montreal has 2 extra second round picks for that draft. If the Habs manage to get a deep run in the playoffs next season (conference final), the draft position of the Canadiens would effectively be the same as a team trading its late 1st round pick for two second round picks. Conversely, the Habs could still "trade up the draft" by exchanging two of their earliest second rounders for a late first round pick if they are interested in one particular prospect anticipated to be drafted at the end of the first round. However ex ante, Montreal's first round pick has more than this because it is less than clear at this point in time at the Montreal Canadiens will have a good run in the playoffs next season.

Final rosters after proposed trade

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with Montreal

FORWARDS

R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)

Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)

Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)

Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)

Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN

Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)

Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)

Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)

John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS

Steve Mason ($2.900m)

Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS

Mike Commodore ($1.542m)

------

SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,875,476; BONUSES: $2,337,500

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $13,324,524

http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13045

After the trade, the Blue Jackets would become a team spending near the floor (of $54.2M) which is not a bad thing considering Columbus has been the team with the second largest deficit (as measured by operating earnings) after the Phoenix Coyotes for the 2010-2011 season. Assuming that the cap hit equals the actual salary paid (not a big assumption for the Blue Jackets), they had a payroll of about $54.746M (after excluding the bonus cushion) for that season. Increasing revenues (by ticket price inflation) and keeping spending near that level would decrease their deficit.

Also, the 23-man roster presented contains 3 extra players with 2-way contracts that can be sent to the minors to save extra money (Russell, Atkinson and Moore). Combined, these contracts account for $2.54M. After subtracting these contracts from the total, it gives a total around $54.335M for the 20-man roster which is barely $0.135M above next year's cap floor (assuming it stays the same with the new CBA). I have also given Ryan Murray the maximal amount for an ELC (Entry Level Contract). This contract would contain a $2.85M performance bonus that is unlikely to be achieved (or at least completely) by a 18-year-old rookie defenseman playing on the third paring. When you also factor in Erik Cole's front-loaded contract (of which the bulk such as the signing bonuses have already been paid by Montreal), it adds up to significant cost savings for the Blue Jackets without hurting the competitiveness of the team (which is already low anyway).

2012-2013 Montreal Canadiens after hypothetical trade with Columbus (and more)

FORWARDS
Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($5.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.500m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.225m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,077,976; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,122,024

http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13315

 

***

UPDATE: Rick Nash traded to the New York Rangers

Rich Nash
Steven Delisle (minor league defenseman)
2013 CBJ 3rd round pick conditional to the Rangers not making the Stanley Cup Final

VS 
Brandon Dubinsky 
Artem Anisimov
Tim Erixon (drafted 23rd overall by Calgary in 2009)
2013 NYR 1st round pick

As I originally expected, the return for Nash consisted of 4 pieces: 1 veteran forward fitting the power forward mold (Dubinsky), 1 young forward established in the league (Anisimov), 1 high grade prospect (Erixon) and a 2013 1st round pick. As Dubinsky, Anisimov, Brassard and Johansen are all natural centers at least two of them will play on the wing. (Anisimov and Dubinsky played on the wing last season.)

My surprise comes from the quality of the two veteran forwards acquired. I envisioned that two first line players (top90 forwards in the league) should come back to Columbus in a trade involving Nash. I have no doubt in my mind that it is what Columbus was asking for, but as we can all see their demands were not satisfied. Considering only last season's point production, Dubinsky and Anisimov barely qualify as top6 forwards as they rank 172th and 158th for points respectively amongst forwards. Dubinsky did however have one 54 point season one year ago.

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with New York Rangers
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($4.200m)
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Artem Anisimov ($1.875m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.500m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS
Mike Commodore ($1.542m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,785,476; BONUSES: $2,175,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $15,414,524
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13445